In the aftermath of Hurricane Helen, the Mets find themselves grappling with a daunting scheduling predicament. With back-to-back games postponed this week, they are now compelled to engage in a doubleheader on Monday in Atlanta. Following this, a crucial wild-card series is slated to commence on Tuesday, leaving them with less than 24 hours between the conclusion of their second game and the next challenge.
This relentless travel schedule poses significant physical demands, particularly with the prospect of depleting their pitching resources during Monday’s matchups, especially with playoff games looming in the subsequent three days.
As the Mets (87-70) embark on their three-game series Mets vs Brewers in Milwaukee on Friday, they currently hold a narrow lead over the Braves (86-71) in the NL wild-card race, while finding themselves in a tight contest with the Diamondbacks (88-71), who have played more games.
With the Padres having secured the top wild card, the competition for the remaining two spots in the National League tightens among the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Braves. Here’s a look at the tiebreaker standings as they head into Friday’s games: both the Mets and Braves would prevail in tiebreakers against the Diamondbacks. However, Atlanta currently holds the tiebreaker over the Mets, boasting a 6-5 series record, with Monday’s doubleheader yet to be played.
There are feasible scenarios wherein the Mets could secure their playoff berth before Monday’s doubleheader, provided they manage to win at least two out of three games against the Brewers.
Friday presents a solid opportunity for the Mets to secure a win in Milwaukee, with left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea taking the mound against veteran right-hander Frankie Montas. Manaea has been instrumental in the Mets’ resurgence this season, delivering a commanding performance in a critical victory against the Phillies in his last outing.
Since the All-Star break, Manaea has posted an impressive ERA of 3.09 across 81 2/3 innings, coupled with a remarkable WHIP of 0.87. Over his last five starts, he has further refined his performance, achieving an ERA of 2.36 while restricting opponents to a mere .133 batting average.
His underlying metrics reflect a strong showing as well (3.56 xFIP, .204 xBA). Remarkably, opponents are batting just .198 against him this season, ranking him third among qualified starters, trailing only Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler and Houston’s Ronel Blanco.
Conversely, Montas has faced challenges, registering a 5.49 ERA over 12 starts since the All-Star break. In his last five outings, he has an ERA of 5.81, with a K-BB% of 21.2 and a .231 xBA. During this stretch, he has maintained a 67.5% strand rate, allowing a 23.3% HR/FB ratio. His Pitching+ rating of 101 remains above league average.
Offensively, the Mets have been performing better of late compared to the Brewers and are expected to field nearly their full lineup, with only Jeff McNeil unavailable for Friday’s contest. Over the past month, the Mets have achieved a wRC+ of 108, outpacing the Brewers, who stand at 93. Furthermore, the Mets have recorded a wRC+ of 107 in 1,740 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in the latter half of the season, while Milwaukee has posted a wRC+ of 97 against left-handed pitching in the same timeframe.
Although the games may lack significance for the Mets vs Brewers, do not anticipate Pat Murphy’s squad to merely go through the motions on Friday or throughout this series; they are eager to compel the Mets into competitive matchups on Monday while also striving to enter the playoffs with momentum.
As such, while one should expect the Brewers to showcase their best effort on Friday night, there remains considerable value in supporting the Mets at -130 with Manaea on the mound.
Leave a Reply